Archive
Some data and ideas on Russian economy
By Constantin Gurdgiev. First published on trueeconomics.blogspot.com.
Russian economy quick summary of some latest stats and some disconnected ideas:
- Q3 2012 real GDP +2.9% y/y down from +4% in Q2 and +4.9% in Q1 2012.
- Expected Q4 2012 GDP growth +2.5%
- November 2012 GDP growth of +1.9% y/y inflation-adjusted
- Q1-Q3 2012 GDP +3.5% y/y
- Q3 2012 consumption +5.1% y/y down from +6.9% in Q2
- Expected full year consumption growth +4% y/y.
- Consumer confidence down to lowest in 18 months (since Q2 2011) in Q4 2012 at -8, Q3 2012 reading was -6.
- Industrial production is up +1.9% y/y in November, manufacturing activity +4%, manufacturing PMI at lowest level in 14 months in December at 50.0
- Services PMI down to 56.1, from 57.1 in November
- Composite PMI at 54.1 – a 4 months low.
Video – IMF answering questions from Moskovites about the economy
IMF asked Moscovites for their toughest questions on Russia’s economy. In response, the IMF’s Antonio Spilimbergo tackles challenges such as oil, funding pensions, growth and transparency for investors. Read more…
Latest Euromoney Country Risk Survey results
Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
Russian Banks Credit Supply to SME
Dr. Constantin Grudgiev
Moody’s latest note on Russian banks, titled SME Lending in Russia: Growth Supports Profitability, but Cyclical Credit Risks Remain is available in Russian.
The note argues that since 2010-2011, Russian banks’ origination of credit to SMEs has grown on the back of banks’ strategic expansion within the SME sector that sees growth in lending to SMEs exceeding that for larger corporates. Read more…
Russian Economy – Inflation & Monetary Policy
Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
Russia’s central bank (CBR) refinance rate was affirmed at 8.00% last week, with the overnight deposit rate at 4%, the minimum auction repo rate at 5.25% and the fixed repo rate at 6.25%. Per Danske Markets, “the CBR stated that it views rates as being acceptable for the coming months as inflation pressures arise in H2 12.”
Russian Economy – Summary 2011
Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev’s concise but comprehensive overview of Russian economy on trueeconomics.blogspot.com.
Industry Partners
